Learning the Hard Way
Four weeks into Mr. Trump’s war-of-choice with Iran, it’s time to ask what we have learned or should have learned. Here are a few of the most important lessons.
First, the 2015 nuclear non-proliferation agreement negotiated over two years by the Obama Administration among the U.S., Britain, China, France, Germany, Iran, Russia, and the EU was working as intended until Mr. Trump withdrew the U.S. in 2018. Titled the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPA), it prevented Iran from making highly enriched uranium necessary for a weapon, verified by on-the-ground inspectors. In exchange, some Western sanctions were lifted, and banks unfroze about $50 billion of Iranian assets and returned the money to its owner.
The JCPA was to be in effect until 2030. Since Trump withdrew in 2018, saying the JCPA wasn’t favorable enough to the U.S., Iran resumed enriching uranium toward weapons-grade quality. Both the U.S. and Israel have said eliminating Iran’s uranium program is a goal of the current war. If the JCPA were still in effect, this would not be a problem for five more years. The lesson is to not let the fantasy of a perfect agreement cancel a good one.
Another lesson is the failure to foresee—and be prepared for—Iran’s closing of the Strait of Hormuz, the 21-mile-wide route connecting the Persian Gulf to the world’s oceans (see map). The strategically important Strait is used by ships carrying about 20 percent of the world’s liquified natural gas and 25 percent of seaborne oil annually as well as fertilizers to feed the world. Shortages of these commodities have skyrocketed prices worldwide. About 3,200 ships are stranded above the Strait.
Mr. Trump has been forced into the embarrassing position of begging allies to help by sending minesweepers and other assets to the Strait. Most were unwilling to get involved in someone else’s war when they had not been advised in advance and had often been criticized and even insulted by Trump. Last week, though, some European countries, Canada, and Japan appeared ready to help enforce the principle of freedom of navigation under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. Economic pressure is growing on Washington faster than on Tehran.
Shamefully, when Japan’s foreign minister, in a press conference with Trump, asked him why allies were not told of the U.S attacks in advance, he told her that “secrecy” was important as it was to Japan when it attacked Pearl Harbor. He could hardly have said anything less diplomatic.
There are at least two lessons here: Mr. Trump should leave diplomacy to experienced diplomats, and his notion of “America First” has become America Alone. Alienating long-term allies like Canada, the U.K., Germany, and Denmark is unwise and dangerous. Nations, like people, should cherish friends and not make enemies unnecessarily.
A different lesson is that airpower, no matter how overwhelming, will not result in regime change, which was another of several muddled goals of joining Israel’s long-planned attack on Iran. Allied airpower during World War II reduced much of Germany and Japan to rubble and killed millions of citizens in both countries. It took an invasion and nearly a year to end the Nazi regime, and the invasion of Japan was only three months away when two atomic bombs convinced Emperor Hirohito to order a surrender (which some Japanese Army officials tried to prevent). Invading Iran is not a practical or acceptable option. Know the history.
We are in a mess, but there is good news for one American: James Buchanan, 15th president (1857-1861) and judged by most historians our worst. He is likely to move up to second-worst.




