Learning the Hard Way

Four weeks into Mr. Trump’s war-of-choice with Iran, it’s time to ask what we have learned or should have learned. Here are a few of the most important lessons. 

First, the 2015 nuclear non-proliferation agreement negotiated over two years by the Obama Administration among the U.S., Britain, China, France, Germany, Iran, Russia, and the EU was working as intended until Mr. Trump withdrew the U.S. in 2018. Titled the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPA), it prevented Iran from making highly enriched uranium necessary for a weapon, verified by on-the-ground inspectors. In exchange, some Western sanctions were lifted, and banks unfroze about $50 billion of Iranian assets and returned the money to its owner. 

The JCPA was to be in effect until 2030. Since Trump withdrew in 2018, saying the JCPA wasn’t favorable enough to the U.S., Iran resumed enriching uranium toward weapons-grade quality. Both the U.S. and Israel have said eliminating Iran’s uranium program is a goal of the current war. If the JCPA were still in effect, this would not be a problem for five more years. The lesson is to not let the fantasy of a perfect agreement cancel a good one. 

Another lesson is the failure to foresee—and be prepared for—Iran’s closing of the Strait of Hormuz, the 21-mile-wide route connecting the Persian Gulf to the world’s oceans (see map). The strategically important Strait is used by ships carrying about 20 percent of the world’s liquified natural gas and 25 percent of seaborne oil annually as well as fertilizers to feed the world. Shortages of these commodities have skyrocketed prices worldwide. About 3,200 ships are stranded above the Strait.

Mr. Trump has been forced into the embarrassing position of begging allies to help by sending minesweepers and other assets to the Strait. Most were unwilling to get involved in someone else’s war when they had not been advised in advance and had often been criticized and even insulted by Trump. Last week, though, some European countries, Canada, and Japan appeared ready to help enforce the principle of freedom of navigation under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. Economic pressure is growing on Washington faster than on Tehran. 

Shamefully, when Japan’s foreign minister, in a press conference with Trump, asked him why allies were not told of the U.S attacks in advance, he told her that “secrecy” was important as it was to Japan when it attacked Pearl Harbor. He could hardly have said anything less diplomatic. 

There are at least two lessons here: Mr. Trump should leave diplomacy to experienced diplomats, and his notion of “America First” has become America Alone. Alienating long-term allies like Canada, the U.K., Germany, and Denmark is unwise and dangerous. Nations, like people, should cherish friends and not make enemies unnecessarily.

A different lesson is that airpower, no matter how overwhelming, will not result in regime change, which was another of several muddled goals of joining Israel’s long-planned attack on Iran. Allied airpower during World War II reduced much of Germany and Japan to rubble and killed millions of citizens in both countries. It took an invasion and nearly a year to end the Nazi regime, and the invasion of Japan was only three months away when two atomic bombs convinced Emperor Hirohito to order a surrender (which some Japanese Army officials tried to prevent). Invading Iran is not a practical or acceptable option. Know the history.

We are in a mess, but there is good news for one American: James Buchanan, 15th president (1857-1861) and judged by most historians our worst. He is likely to move up to second-worst.

                                       Sounds of March Madness

We have two versions of March Madness this year. The sounds associated with the the NCAA basketball tournaments is the “swish” of a good shot followed by cheering fans. The other Madness this March has brought the “boom” of exploding bombs and missiles followed by the screams of the dying and injured. 

As this was written, we were a week into a war that Mr. Trump started. Benefits as of March 7 included the killing of Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei, who during his 36 years in office was ultimately responsible for thousands of deaths and much destruction throughout the Middle East as well as the murder of thousands of Iranian protesters. Dozens of other officials of the terrorist regime also died in the American and Israeli attacks. 

Other benefits were the destruction of most of Iran’s navy; of many missiles, drones, and their launchers; of radar and other defense facilities; and of nuclear infrastructure that was supposedly, in Trump’s words after a U.S. attack last June, “totally obliterated.” Apparently not.

Liabilities so far included a lack of clear strategic goals by which to measure success. Was it regime change (Trump said “yes,” but Defense Secretary Hegseth said “no”), fatal damage to Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs, the end of a constant threat to Isreal, or some combination? Was it to stop an “imminent threat” to the U.S., as the administration claimed even with no evidence of such a threat? There is also no clear exit strategy. 

Poor planning was evident with no plan to evacuate tens of thousands of American civilians, no plan to protect commercial shipping including vital oil tankers, and no warning to allies and others who had civilians and other interests to protect.

Perhaps the greatest strategic liability is that the war promptly spread to 12 other countries from Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States to Lebanon, Iraq, Azerbaijan, the U.K., and Turkey. By now, it may have spread to others. 

The cost in lives by March 7 was six U.S. soldiers, several Israeli civilians, and an unknown number of Iranian civilians including more than 150 children when their school was hit by an allied weapon. The administration claims it doesn’t target civilians, which may be true, but in a crowded city, legitimate targets are often close to civilian structures. 

War is expensive with this one costing the U.S. an estimated $1 billion a day. Three U.S. fighter jets accidentally shot down by our Kuwaiti allies cost about $96 million each. Fortunately, all six crewmen bailed out safely. 

Why begin a major war now? Trump said that “Isreal forced our hand.” There were domestic reasons, too. About 60 percent of Americans disapprove of Trump’s policies, and Republicans have lost nearly every recent federal and state election and are likely to lose at least the House in November, seriously weakening Trump. Attorney General Bondi has mishandled the Epstein files scandal so badly that it screams “coverup.” Days before the war began, FBI Director Kash Patel fired an elite group of 12 agents with specialized knowledge of Iran. Homeland Security chief Kristi Noam oversaw the ICE Gestapo disaster so badly that Trump has fired her, and Health Secretary Kennedy’s policies endanger public health.

 Jobs and stocks are down, and gas prices up. Trump campaigned on no foreign wars and lower consumer prices; now we have more foreign wars and higher prices. This is not a recipe for success, so a war can distract from all the bad news. If a president spends months getting Americans behind a war, as George H. W. Bush did when Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1991, people will rally ‘round the flag. Trump didn’t even try to sell his Iran adventure, and the Constitution assigns Congress the power to make war. People aren’t rallying ‘round the flag this time.